Feb. 5, 2010
I believe that I have stumbled upon an economic indicator which points to a gradual recovery in the local Xenia economy. It does not involve hard statistics or even much in the way of deep thought at all. What I have noticed lately is simply this: I am dragging more garbage cans out to the street each Sunday night.
Let me explain. I have owned a daycare center for over 35 years and a coffee shop for nearly 6. Both are classic Mom and Pop businesses with a few employees and personal service. With Kiddie Kingdom, I have seen my enrollment grow from 5 or 10 children in the first year to nearly 60 in the boom years of the '90's.
Of course, as the enrollment rose I needed to hire more employees, buy more supplies, serve more meals, change more diapers and consequently fill up more garbage cans. At our peak, we were dragging out 4 huge commercial cans each week.
When the recession hit a couple of years ago, one of the first indicators that things were going south was the decline in the trash. I would check each Sunday night and when I got down to 3 cans a week, I was worried. When things were at their absolute worst last winter, I only had about 20 kids enrolled and there were only 2 cans out front. My staff was down from 5 to 3 and they were all working reduced hours.
The same thing is true at Express Yourself. We started the coffee shop and art gallery in 2004 on a shoestring budget and a willingness to work for a while without being paid. Things were going along nicely for the first year, but then a couple of other coffee shops opened in town and things leveled out. Too soon. Our garbage output rose from a couple of cans a week to 4 and stuck there.
Then the recession hit. I noticed our trash can count drop to 3 a week, then 2 before the folks in Washington noticed that employment was falling like a rock and the recession was officially on.
Now I can confirm that there is about a half of a trash can extra being generated at each of the businesses. And enrollment is up at the daycare. I just hired another employee part time to help with the extra kids. We have cut hours at the coffee shop, but now we are earning a bit more per hour when we are open. And making more trash.
So have faith, my friends. The Trashcan Index is now at 2.5, up from 2.0, and showing a small but significant rise in economic activity in the local economy. Maybe we can outlast this recession after all. Meanwhile, keep an eye on your own trashcan index and keep your fingers crossed.
© 2010 Alan D. King
Update: As of August 2010, the coffee shop closed, we sold our downtown Xenia building and we are investing all of our time and resources in keeping the daycare open. We've gotten our financial tailspin under control and thanks to a pretty big infusion of money into the local economy from a severe hail storm in May of 2011, our business is growing, our enrollment at Kiddie Kingdom is rising, and as of the fall of 2011, our Trashcan Index is nearing 4.0!
Comments are welcome at: king1075@sbcglobal.net
© 2011 Alan D. King